by Prof. Eyal Zisser
From Israel's perspective, Sinwar's election changes very little. Yet perhaps it serves as an advantage, exposing the true face of a Hamas leadership in Gaza
The election of Yahya
Sinwar, a senior member of Hamas' military wing in Gaza, as the
organization's leader in the coastal enclave -- while a subject of
considerable interest in the Israeli press -- does not foretell a change
in the terrorist organization's path or its approach to Israel.
The real power in the
Gaza Strip has been in the hands of Hamas' military wing for quite some
time regardless, and this has dictated how the organization conducts
itself vis-a-vis Israel. Neither Sinwar's predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh,
nor Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal decided whether to carry out terrorist
attacks or abduction attempts, and they were not the ones who maintained
the calm along the border with Israel in recent years. We can also
assume that no one asked their opinion on strengthening ties with the
Islamic State group's affiliate in the Sinai Desert, supposedly to
combat Israel, but in actuality a move against the Egyptian armed forces
deployed to the peninsula and along the Egypt-Gaza border.
And yet, in recent
years Hamas has taken pains to separate its military wing from its
political leadership, which heads the organization, manages its
relations with the Arab world, Egypt in particular, and for all intents
and purposes functions as a government, which the people living in Gaza
can turn to regarding their day-to-day problems. Hamas likely did this
for security purposes, to remove the threat of harm to its political
leaders while at the same time allowing its military commanders to keep a
low profile as protection from Israel.
But there was another
aspect here. Hamas, like organizations similar to it, such as Hezbollah,
had an interest in maintaining the facade where its political leaders,
such as Haniyeh and Mashaal, present themselves as legitimate statesmen
without any linkage to the terrorist activity in which the other members
of their organization are involved; ergo positioning them as suitable
partners in a Palestinian unity government, as worthy of recognition
from the international community and even the Arab world and allowing
them to pursue the organization's agenda and their own without paying
any price.
It is quite possible
that Hamas' internal dynamics, within the military wing and Gaza itself,
propelled Sinwar and his cohort to vie for the organization's political
leadership and no longer settle for simply having the final word at the
table, certainly in regards to Israel, which was reserved for them on
all matters regardless. It is also possible, however, that the election
of Sinwar expresses the desire of many Hamas supporters for a change in
leadership. To be sure, Haniyeh is a tired leader who is also suffering
from health issues.
Furthermore, during his
prolonged tenure of over 10 years as the organization's leader and in
essence "prime minister" in Gaza, the situation there has largely
remained the same. Hamas has been unable to improve the economic
situation for the enclave's residents, even in the slightest. In fact
the opposite has been true; it appears the situation in the Gaza Strip
is only getting worse.
What's interesting is
that the desire for change was translated into a secret vote for a
person identified with the military wing and the organization's
uncompromising militant line, as if this avenue will lead to salvation.
"Generals" sometimes change their views and soften their stance, but we
cannot expect this to happen this time. The choice of Sinwar, who is
also renowned for his hard-line Islamist views, is a testimony to the
lack of hope and to the rising despair among many in Gaza, even among
Hamas supporters, as it pertains to the quality of life they expect for
themselves there.
From Israel's
perspective, Sinwar's election changes very little. Yet perhaps it
serves as an advantage, exposing the true face of a Hamas leadership in
Gaza that can no longer present itself as a possible partner to the
Palestinian Authority or as a responsible entity with which the
international community can do business.
Despite Sinwar's hostility toward
Israel, as if Haniyeh and Mashaal were moderates in comparison, he was
the one who signed off on the de facto cease-fire that has existed
between Hamas and Israel for the past two years, and he is the one who
has preserved the quiet along the border. But he has also overseen
Hamas' efforts to restore its military strength, hoard missiles and dig
tunnels, for the crucial day when the fight against Israel can resume.
Neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians, therefore, can expect new
tidings from Gaza, certainly not from Sinwar and his cohort now leading
Hamas.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=18417
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